NIW and EB-1A Approval Rates in 2026: What USCIS's Quarterly I-140 Data Actually Shows
NIW approvals climbed to 55.3% while EB-1A slid to 32.2% in the latest USCIS quarter, and not one of those decisions was made under PA-2026-05.
Part of our guide to Form I-140.
Status as of 2026-11-01: the latest official NIW approval rate for 2026 is 55.3%, and the EB-1A approval rate is 32.2%. Both cover decisions made from April to June 2026 (FY2026 Q3), come from the USCIS I-140 file posted 2026-09-08, and count approvals divided by approvals plus denials. Policy Alert PA-2026-05 has been in effect since 2026-08-05 and is challenged in federal court, with no ruling yet. The FY2026 Q4 file is not posted, so no USCIS figure covers a single decision made under the new policy.
If you read that NIW approvals "collapsed" in 2026: the official trend ran the other way through June, and nobody outside USCIS can measure what happened after August yet. Below are the quarterly table, the arithmetic and the traps that make other published numbers disagree.
What is the NIW approval rate in 2026?
In the USCIS FY2026 Q3 I-140 data (April to June 2026), the EB-2 National Interest Waiver approval rate was 55.3%, from 3,835 approvals and 3,103 denials. It rose from 42.5% in Q1 and 48.1% in Q2. EB-1A moved the opposite way, from 47.5% to 32.2%. Every decision in those figures predates PA-2026-05.
Across the first three quarters combined, the NIW rate was 49.1% (9,238 approvals, 9,585 denials), so denials still slightly outnumbered approvals for the fiscal year to date. The NIW denial rate, the complement under the same formula, fell from 57.5% in Q1 to 44.7% in Q3.
I-140 approval rate by category, quarter by quarter
I-140 approval rates by category, FY2026 Q1-Q3, as of 2026-11. Source: USCIS, Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status, FY2026 Q3 (queried 07/2026, posted 2026-09-08). Rates are our arithmetic: approvals / (approvals + denials), rounded to one decimal.
| Category (USCIS code) | Q1 Oct-Dec 2025 | Q2 Jan-Mar 2026 | Q3 Apr-Jun 2026 | Q1-Q3 combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) | 42.5% | 48.1% | 55.3% | 49.1% |
| EB-1A extraordinary ability (E11) | 47.5% | 41.8% | 32.2% | 40.7% |
| EB-1B outstanding professor or researcher (E12) | 94.9% | 93.7% | 93.0% | 93.8% |
| EB-1C multinational manager (E13) | 97.0% | 97.0% | 97.4% | 97.2% |
| EB-2 with PERM (E21) | 98.5% | 94.0% | 97.4% | 96.9% |
| EB-3 skilled worker (E31) | 96.8% | 96.5% | 96.7% | 96.6% |
| All I-140 petitions | 88.1% | 86.7% | 84.3% | 86.5% |
Two patterns stand out. First, the two categories you can file for yourself sit roughly 38 to 65 points below the employer-filed ones in Q3. USCIS's EB-1 page says EB-1A needs no job offer and that you "may apply for yourself", while for EB-1B "your U.S. employer must file". That gap does not prove officers favor employers, because the pools differ: E21 and E31 petitions, for example, arrive with a Department of Labor PERM certification already approved (our reading). Second, the self-petition categories crossed: in Q1 EB-1A led NIW by five points, and by Q3 NIW led by 23.
The raw counts behind the two self-petition rows:
| FY2026 quarter | NIW approved | NIW denied | NIW rate | EB-1A approved | EB-1A denied | EB-1A rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Oct-Dec 2025) | 2,365 | 3,200 | 42.5% | 2,164 | 2,394 | 47.5% |
| Q2 (Jan-Mar 2026) | 3,038 | 3,282 | 48.1% | 1,720 | 2,394 | 41.8% |
| Q3 (Apr-Jun 2026) | 3,835 | 3,103 | 55.3% | 1,348 | 2,832 | 32.2% |
| Q1-Q3 | 9,238 | 9,585 | 49.1% | 5,232 | 7,620 | 40.7% |
How to check these numbers yourself
- Open the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data page and download "Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status (Fiscal Year 2026, Quarter 3)", posted 2026-09-08.
- Open the "RADP Summary" sheet and find the "National Interest Waiver (NIW)" row, or "Alien of Extraordinary Ability (E11)" for EB-1A.
- Copy the Approved and Denied figures for one quarter. Leave Received and Pending out of the rate.
- Divide approvals by approvals plus denials. For NIW in Q3, 3,835 / 6,938 = 55.3%.
- Combine quarters by adding counts, not by averaging percentages. Averaging 42.5, 48.1 and 55.3 gives 48.6%; the count-weighted rate is 49.1%.
- Note the file's query line ("CLAIMS3 and ELIS, queried 07/2026") beside any figure you quote, because USCIS says counts "may differ from previous periods due to system updates and post adjudicative outcomes."
What the quarterly file does not tell you
The most important limit is printed under the summary table: "Some applications approved, denied, or pending a decision may have been received in previous reporting periods." With processing measured in years, a Q3 rate describes what officers decided from April to June, not how a petition filed today will fare.
- Petitions, not people. The file "could contain multiple petitions for a single individual". File EB-1A and NIW in parallel, or refile after a denial, and you appear more than once.
- No reasons and no RFE counts. Nothing shows why petitions failed or how many got a Request for Evidence first.
- No rate by country or field. The Q3 file lists approvals by country of birth (423 NIW approvals for India-born beneficiaries, 717 for China-born) but no denials by country, so no country rate can be computed. There is no field breakdown.
- Closures and transfers are invisible. The pending note says actions "such as administrative closures and transfers between offices" are not reflected.
- Premium and regular cases are pooled. The USCIS premium processing page lists 45 business days for NIW and 15 for EB-1A, but the data does not split the tracks.
Why did EB-1A approval rates drop?
The file shows the drop, not the cause. EB-1A approvals fell every quarter, from 2,164 to 1,720 to 1,348, while denials held at 2,394 in Q1 and Q2 and then rose to 2,832. By Q3 USCIS denied about two EB-1A petitions for every one it approved, all before PA-2026-05 existed.
Several explanations fit, and the data cannot separate them (our reading):
- Which petitions reached a decision. The USCIS tool showed 32.5 months for EB-1A I-140s on 2026-11-01 (the time within which 80% of cases finish), so Q3 decisions largely reflect earlier filings.
- The mix of earlier filings. If weaker petitions made up more of what reached decision, denials would rise; the file records nothing about petition quality.
- How officers apply the second step. USCIS says "You must meet at least 3 of the 10 criteria," but that is step one; our guide to the Kazarian two-step and final merits determination explains step two. Two District of Nebraska rulings point different ways: Mukherji v. Miller (2026-01-28) ordered USCIS to approve one petitioner's case, and the government's Eighth Circuit appeal was dismissed on the government's own motion on 2026-06-10, while Agarwal v. Miller (2026-09-25) upheld final-merits review, according to Cyrus Mehta's analysis. There is no appellate precedent, and USCIS still applies final merits; see our explainer on the Mukherji and Agarwal split.
A falling ratio tells you the 2026 decision stream was harder on EB-1A. It does not tell you why, or what will happen to your file.
Did PA-2026-05 cause more NIW denials?
No published data can show that, so any claim that it did is a guess. PA-2026-05, issued 2026-08-05, says USCIS "in its discretion, may deny the benefit request" for lack of required initial evidence "without first issuing an RFE or NOID". It also makes 12 weeks the maximum RFE response time, not the standard, and keeps the NOID response time at no more than 30 days. It covers every USCIS benefit request pending or filed on or after 2026-08-05, not only EB-1A and NIW. Status: in effect, challenged. AAUP v. Mullin (D. Mass. 1:26-cv-14527, filed 2026-10-05) challenges it and PM-602-0199 (BAL's summary of the suit); no ruling or preliminary injunction had issued as of 2026-11-01. Our PA-2026-05 explainer covers what changed, and our note on shorter RFE response windows covers deadlines.
When post-PA-2026-05 data can first appear
Fiscal quarters and PA-2026-05 coverage, as of 2026-11 (USCIS data page checked 2026-11-01)
| Fiscal quarter | Decision dates | Decisions under PA-2026-05 | USCIS I-140 file |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q1 | 2025-10-01 to 2025-12-31 | None | Published |
| FY2026 Q2 | 2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31 | None | Published |
| FY2026 Q3 | 2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30 | None | Published 2026-09-08 |
| FY2026 Q4 | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | From 2026-08-05 only (57 of 92 days) | Not posted |
| FY2027 Q1 | 2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31 | The whole quarter | Quarter still running |
The Q4 file will blend about five weeks of pre-policy decisions with eight weeks of post-policy ones, and if it keeps the Q3 layout it will not say which denials skipped an RFE. FY2027 Q1 is the first full post-policy quarter. USCIS does not announce release dates: recent quarterly releases have come three to six months after quarter-end, while this Q3 I-140 file came about ten weeks after its quarter closed on 2026-06-30. If anyone quotes an "official post-policy NIW approval rate" before USCIS posts one, ask which file it came from.
Is NIW easier than EB-1A now?
In April to June 2026 USCIS approved a larger share of NIW petitions (55.3%) than EB-1A petitions (32.2%). In October to December 2025 the order was reversed. A category rate describes everyone who filed, not your record, so a quarterly ratio cannot settle "easier" for you.
The tests differ. USCIS's EB-2 page says NIW filers "may self-petition (you do not need an employer to sponsor you)" and weighs three factors, starting with whether "Your Endeavor Has Substantial Merit and National Importance." EB-1A turns on the ten criteria plus final merits. And the approval rate is only half the comparison, because the wait after approval depends on the Visa Bulletin:
EB-1A vs EB-2 NIW before and after approval, as of 2026-11. Cutoffs are Final Action Date / Dates for Filing from the November 2026 Visa Bulletin (released 2026-10-22); processing times from the USCIS tool, read 2026-11-01; premium fee from G-1055 edition 10/26/26
| Factor | EB-1A | EB-2 NIW |
|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q3 approval rate | 32.2% | 55.3% |
| I-140 processing time (80% of cases) | 32.5 months | 30 months |
| Premium processing clock (I-907, $2,965) | 15 business days | 45 business days |
| India (Final Action / Dates for Filing) | 2023-02-01 / 2024-07-01 | 2013-11-01 / 2015-01-15 |
| China (Final Action / Dates for Filing) | 2023-08-01 / 2024-07-01 | 2021-10-01 / 2023-01-01 |
| Rest of world (Final Action / Dates for Filing) | Current / Current | 2025-04-01 / 2026-03-15 |
For November I-485s USCIS requires the Dates for Filing chart, per its adjustment filing charts page; consular cases always use Final Action Dates. The December bulletin is not out, so any December cutoff you see is a forecast. Processing times move monthly, so check the USCIS processing times tool. A rulemaking titled "Amending the Premium Processing Timeframe" (RIN 1615-AD25) is under OIRA review at the White House (received 2026-10-13); no text is public, and the clocks above still apply.
If you were born in India, the queue matters as much as the rate: USCIS counted 356,360 approved EB-2 petitions (PERM and NIW together) for India-born primary beneficiaries still awaiting a visa as of June 2026, dependents excluded, in its approved-petitions file. If you are on H-1B, an approved I-140 can still support three-year extensions under AC21 section 104(c); ask your attorney whether you qualify. On F-1, OPT or STEM OPT, a pending or approved I-140 gives you no status or work authorization of its own, and F-1 is not a dual-intent status, so ask an immigration attorney how a self-petition interacts with visa renewals and travel. Our comparison of EB-1A vs EB-2 NIW and which to file first and our look at whether EB-1A or NIW is still realistic for students go further.
Questions to take to an attorney, rather than to a statistic:
- Which exhibits map to which EB-1A criteria or NIW factors, and where is each thin?
- Is any required initial evidence missing that could now draw a denial with no RFE?
- Given my country of birth, what does an approval in each category change for my H-1B or OPT timeline?
How many NIW petitions are pending?
USCIS reported 96,297 NIW petitions pending at the end of FY2026 Q3 (2026-06-30), against 28,874 EB-1A and 203,204 I-140s of all kinds, so NIW is about 47% of every pending I-140 (our arithmetic). In Q3 USCIS received 13,831 NIW petitions and decided 6,938, roughly two in for every one out.
Do not compare these with earlier quarters: the file warns that "the total pending counts cannot be calculated using data from previous reporting periods," and it counts petitions, not people.
Why do Lawfully and law-firm approval rates differ from USCIS data?
They count different cases. Lawfully is an app where people track their own USCIS cases. Manifest Law, which publishes NIW reports built on Lawfully data, says in one such report that the sample is smaller than the total number of cases decided each month, that it "skews toward cases filed through regular processing", and that it is a "directional signal, not a substitute for official data." A law firm's rate describes the petitions that firm accepted and filed. Periods differ too: monthly or rolling windows against USCIS fiscal quarters.
Each answers a different question. Quote USCIS as the official rate for a named quarter, quote a tracker as that tracker's sample with its own date, and never average or blend the two.
Common mistakes
- Dividing approvals by receipts. For Q3 NIW, 3,835 / 13,831 = 27.7%, which treats the backlog as denials (EB-1A the same way gives 22.3%). Use approvals plus denials.
- Reading Q3 as post-policy, or saying PA-2026-05 caused a denial spike. April to June 2026 ended five weeks before the policy took effect, and no USCIS data covers post-policy decisions yet.
- Averaging quarterly percentages. Add the counts; the combined NIW rate is 49.1%, not 48.6%.
- Comparing pending counts across quarters. USCIS says they cannot be derived from earlier periods.
- Treating a category rate as your odds, or blending tracker and USCIS figures into one number.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NIW approval rate in 2026?
The latest USCIS quarterly I-140 file puts the EB-2 NIW approval rate at 55.3% for April to June 2026 (FY2026 Q3), from 3,835 approvals and 3,103 denials. It was 42.5% in Q1 and 48.1% in Q2, or 49.1% for the three quarters combined. As of 2026-11-01 no later quarter is posted.
Why did EB-1A approval rates drop?
The USCIS file shows the drop but not the reason. EB-1A approvals fell from 2,164 in FY2026 Q1 to 1,348 in Q3 while denials rose to 2,832, taking the rate from 47.5% to 32.2%. All of it predates PA-2026-05, which took effect on 2026-08-05.
Did PA-2026-05 cause more NIW denials?
No published data can show that. PA-2026-05 has been in effect since 2026-08-05, but the newest USCIS I-140 data ends on 2026-06-30 and the FY2026 Q4 file was not posted as of 2026-11-01. Any claim of a policy-driven denial spike is a guess, not a statistic.
Is NIW easier than EB-1A now?
In April to June 2026 USCIS approved 55.3% of decided NIW petitions and 32.2% of EB-1A petitions, but in October to December 2025 EB-1A was ahead (47.5% vs 42.5%). A category rate describes everyone who filed, not your record, so which category fits you is a question for a licensed immigration attorney.
Why do Lawfully and law-firm approval rates differ from USCIS data?
They count different cases over different periods. Lawfully figures come from petitions its app users track and a firm's figures from the cases it chose to file, while USCIS counts every decision in a fiscal quarter. Quote each with its own date and never blend them.
Sources
- USCIS, Immigration and Citizenship Data and the FY2026 Q3 I-140 file
- USCIS, approved EB petitions awaiting visas, FY2026 Q3
- USCIS, Policy Alert PA-2026-05
- USCIS, EB-1 and EB-2 pages
- USCIS, premium processing, G-1055, processing times and filing charts
- BAL on AAUP v. Mullin; Cyrus Mehta on Agarwal and Mukherji
- Manifest Law, Lawfully NIW report (third-party sample, cited only to explain the difference)
How we checked this: on 2026-11-01 we downloaded the USCIS FY2026 Q3 I-140 and approved-petitions files, recomputed every rate as approvals / (approvals + denials) from the raw counts, confirmed that no Q4 file was listed, read the text of PA-2026-05 and the USCIS EB-1, EB-2 and premium processing pages, and took court status from the legal analyses cited above.
This is general information, not legal or tax advice; your own receipt and approval notices govern, and a licensed immigration attorney (or your DSO, for anything touching F-1, OPT or SEVIS) should guide decisions about your case.
If you are on OPT, STEM OPT or H-1B and want an employer-sponsored path alongside a self-petition, F1Jobs can help you run a focused search for employers that sponsor.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NIW approval rate in 2026?
The latest USCIS quarterly I-140 file puts the EB-2 NIW approval rate at 55.3% for April to June 2026 (FY2026 Q3), from 3,835 approvals and 3,103 denials. It was 42.5% in Q1 and 48.1% in Q2, or 49.1% for the three quarters combined. As of 2026-11-01 no later quarter is posted.
Why did EB-1A approval rates drop?
The USCIS file shows the drop but not the reason. EB-1A approvals fell from 2,164 in FY2026 Q1 to 1,348 in Q3 while denials rose to 2,832, taking the rate from 47.5% to 32.2%. All of it predates PA-2026-05, which took effect on 2026-08-05.
Did PA-2026-05 cause more NIW denials?
No published data can show that. PA-2026-05 has been in effect since 2026-08-05, but the newest USCIS I-140 data ends on 2026-06-30 and the FY2026 Q4 file was not posted as of 2026-11-01. Any claim of a policy-driven denial spike is a guess, not a statistic.
Is NIW easier than EB-1A now?
In April to June 2026 USCIS approved 55.3% of decided NIW petitions and 32.2% of EB-1A petitions, but in October to December 2025 EB-1A was ahead (47.5% vs 42.5%). A category rate describes everyone who filed, not your record, so which category fits you is a question for a licensed immigration attorney.
Why do Lawfully and law-firm approval rates differ from USCIS data?
They count different cases over different periods. Lawfully figures come from petitions its app users track and a firm's figures from the cases it chose to file, while USCIS counts every decision in a fiscal quarter. Quote each with its own date and never blend them.